Codelco's October production fell by 14.3%, and LME copper surged significantly overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, December 12, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $11,634/mt overnight, hitting an initial low of $11,634/mt, then rose consistently, approaching a high of $11,906/mt near the session's end, finally consolidating to close at $11,833.5/mt, a gain of 2.37%, with trading volume reaching 29,000 lots and open interest reaching 345,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 92,700 yuan/mt overnight, hit an initial low of 92,550 yuan/mt, then its center rose consistently, reaching a high of 93,940 yuan/mt near the session's end, finally closing at 94,080 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.95%, with trading volume reaching 81,000 lots and open interest reaching 192,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On December 11, data released by Cochilco on Wednesday showed that Codelco's copper production in October fell 14.3% to 111,000 mt.

(2) On December 11, Argentina's Mendoza province gave the green light to the joint venture PSJ Cobre Mendocino between Switzerland's Zonda Metals and Argentina's Alberdi Energy. The Cobre Mendocino copper mine is expected to produce 40,000 mt of copper concentrates annually over a 16-year mining period. The project plans an initial investment of $559 million, with a construction cycle of 18 to 24 months.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On December 11, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with an average price quoted at a premium of 5 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode price ranged from 92,400 to 92,930 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2512 contract surged to 92,930 yuan/mt before paring gains. Looking ahead to today, Friday, downstream procurement sentiment is expected to improve, but overall, the trading center for SHFE copper is unlikely to rebound.

(2) Guangdong: On December 11, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 65 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 92,785 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 92,760 yuan/mt, up 1,125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, limited circulating supply and suppliers actively holding prices firm led to higher premiums today.

(3) Imported copper: On December 11, warrant prices were $35 to $47/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42 to $54/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2/mt to $16/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-December and late December.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 11, the futures closing price was 92,130 yuan/mt, up 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 5 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 700 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,300-82,500 yuan/mt, up 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,007 yuan/mt, down 393 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,990 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as invoices became increasingly scarce in the invoice market, the invoice tax rate in Guangdong's invoice market rose from 6.5% in November to 7.5% this week, while that in Jiangxi increased from 7% last month to a maximum of 8.2%. Due to poor liquidity in the year-end market, many enterprises required upstream suppliers to issue invoices promptly to ensure payment collection, leading to rising demand in the invoice market.

(5) Inventory: On December 10, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 875 mt to 165,850 mt; SHFE warrant inventories rose by 2,530 mt to 31,461 mt.

Price: On the macro front, the number of US initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected, recording the largest weekly increase since the pandemic, putting the US dollar index under pressure and closing lower, which benefited copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, imported cargo arrivals were tight, while domestic cargo arrivals were normal, leading to tight supply. Demand side, after copper prices stabilized, consumption sentiment marginally improved. Overall, copper prices were expected to hover at highs today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]